The BJP’s demand for a larger seat share in the assembly elections —a key reason for the alliance talks with the Biju Janata Dal(BJD) breaking down in Odisha before Lok Sabha and state polls — was based on four internal surveys that showed the party gaining ground in the state, leaders aware of the matter said on Saturday.
Talks between the BJP and the BJD over a proposed pre-poll alliance in Odisha ahead of the Lok Sabha and assembly polls next month broke down on Friday three weeks after they began, with both parties announcing that they would fight all 147 assembly seats and 21 Lok Sabha seats alone.
Assembly and Lok Sabha polls are scheduled simultaneously in the eastern state, which votes in four phases beginning on May 13 and ending on June 1.
According to people familiar with the matter, the two parties had almost finalised a seat pact in the first week beginning March 6, with the BJP getting 47 seats and the BJD 100 in the assembly elections. Similarly, for the Lok Sabha polls, both the parties had reached a deal that the BJP would contest 14 seats and the BJD seven.
“The crucial Bhubaneswar and Puri Lok Sabha seats, however, remained a sticking point between the two,” a leader aware of the matter said, adding that while the BJD agreed to cede Bhubaneswar to the BJP, it didn’t want to let go of the prestigious Puri Lok Sabha seat. “The BJP state unit’s persistent demand for a larger share of seats threw a spanner in the negotiations,” the functionary said, adding that the BJP had demanded 65-70 seats in the assembly, citing four internal surveys that the Naveen Patnaik government’s popularity “continued to wane’’.
A senior BJP leader, who was part of the discussion, said: “The first survey done by the party in December last year showed that the BJP is likely to win anything between 32 and 60 assembly seats… while the BJD was likely to win between 80 and 95 seats… The same survey showed that BJP was likely to win 15 Lok Sabha seats…”
“Thereafter there were 3 more surveys which showed that BJP would win around 60 assembly seats…Besides, surveys by few credible pollsters also showed that our party was gaining at the expense of BJD while the popularity of Patnaik continued to wane.”
To be sure, it’s now not an uncommon practice for political parties to commission surveys to assess the situation on the ground. These, however, are not always reliable indicators of electoral results, particularly when held months before an election.
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